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Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best



New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."—Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works  We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.


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Detail Information

Series Title
Psychology, Social Psychology, Political Science, Commentary & Opinion, Social Science, Sociology, General
Call Number
303.4909
Publisher Penguin Publishing Group : City of Westminster, London, E.,
Collation
xi, 305 pages ; 21 cm
Language
ISBN/ISSN
978-0452297579
Classification
303.4909
Content Type
-
Media Type
-
Carrier Type
-
Edition
1st Edition
Subject(s)
Specific Detail Info
-
Statement of Responsibility

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